The Baltimore Ravens come calling at a terrible time for the “Terrible Towels” of the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 5 of the NFL season.
Pittsburgh is reeling from a 30-6 loss at Houston and could be without starting quarterback Kenny Pickett after he suffered a bone bruise to his knee that took him out of action on the weekend.
With backup QB Mitchell Trubisky waiting in the wings, NFL Week 5 odds moved the Steelers from an opener of +3.5 to as high as +5 before the update on Pickett’s status for Sunday, bringing the spread back to the original post.
Baltimore knows a thing or two about playing through injuries. The Ravens’ roster has been ravaged by ailments to start the season, yet the team continues to march forward. Baltimore is an overtime loss away from being 4-0 and can surge ahead of a stumbling AFC North with a win in Week 5.
I break down the NFL odds for this classic division rivalry and give my best NFL picks and predictions for Ravens at Steelers on October 8.
Ravens vs Steelers odds
Ravens vs Steelers predictions
The AFC North has a reputation for hard-nosed defenses and grinding games. The betting outcomes back that up, at least as it pertains to the Baltimore Ravens.
Since John Harbaugh took over as head coach in 2008, the Ravens have gone 39-52-1 Over/Under versus AFC North rivals in the regular season – a blind 57% winner for the Under during that span.
Baltimore added another Under to that pile last weekend, beating the Browns and backup QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson 28-3, which finished well below the closing total of 38.5 points.
That’s where this Week 5 Over/Under currently sits, with the Ravens possibly playing another second-string QB in Mitchell Trubisky.
Even with Kenny Pickett healthy, Pittsburgh has a pop-gun attack that dribbles out 4.6 yards per play and sits 31st in both EPA per play and Offensive DVOA. While the Steelers did get shut down by quality stop units in San Francisco and Cleveland, they also failed to make gains against the likes of Las Vegas and Houston.
Baltimore’s defense is on the upper end of the stop unit scale through four weeks. Yes, the Ravens have beaten up on less-than-stellar offenses, but the advanced stats don’t discount them too much for the strength of schedule and they’re right there with the 49ers and Browns in terms of EPA allowed per play and DVOA pecking order.
If Pickett plays, DC Mike Macdonald will dial up the pressure and test the QB’s knee by putting him on the run. Pittsburgh could be down some important pieces to protect Pickett – or Trubisky – with o-line starters James Daniels and Dan Moore Jr. listed as questionable and TE Pat Freiermuth likely out.
The Ravens also play a good amount of “defense” on offense as well. Baltimore is methodical in its approach, running one of the slower tempos behind an attack that goes ground more than any other team in the land. That means shorter gains and the continuous clock – a recipe for Unders.
Offensive coordinator Todd Monken wanted to find more balance in Baltimore’s play calling this season but injuries to its top receiving weapons haven’t allowed the Ravens to strike deep, with WRs Odell Beckham Jr. and Rashod Bateman missing time. That’s limited QB Lamar Jackson to just 6.8 intended air yards per pass – eight lowest in the NFL.
Pittsburgh’s defense has given up some big points through the first four games but is still one of the more vaunted pass rushes out there, boasting the fifth-highest pressure rate and 13 sacks on the season. That chaos also creates mistakes and the Steelers have capitalized on those errors with eight total takeaways in 2023.
This Week 5 trip to Pittsburgh is a tough situational spot for the Ravens, which could lead to regression. Baltimore is playing back-to-back road games and its third road game in four weeks and runs the risk of looking ahead to a trip across the pond to play in London, England in Week 6.
Given that sticky spot and the familiarity of these two franchises, I expect another classic AFC North grudge match with the Ravens and Steelers playing Under the total on Sunday.
My best bet: Under 38.5 (-110 at bet365)Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
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Ravens vs Steelers same-game parlay
Under 38.5Lamar Jackson Over 46.5 rushing yardsNajee Harris Over 48.5 rushing yards
+700 at bet365
With two stingy defenses and the Steelers offense unable to move the chain, I’ll stick with the Under to keep on cashing in this AFC North rivalry. Lamar will feel plenty of pressure from the Pittsburgh defense and make plays with his legs, as his player projections sit well above this total.
With the Ravens coming after a hobble Pickett, the Steelers have to lean on the run to keep Baltimore honest. Harris’ forecasts call for close to 60 yards from the RB.
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Ravens vs Steelers spread and Over/Under analysis
The look-ahead line set in the summer had the Steelers listed as 2.5-point home underdogs to the rival Ravens and as the season played out, Pittsburgh adjusted to +2 before Week 4.
Following Baltimore beating up on a Cleveland team missing Deshaun Watson and the Steelers getting stomped by the Texans, the official Week 5 line hit the board at Pittsburgh +3.5 – with books waiting for news on Kenny Pickett’s injury.
In the meantime, the market jumped on Baltimore and pushed this spread to as high as Ravens -5 before updates on Pickett’s knee listed him as questionable for Sunday. As it stands on Tuesday afternoon, most markets are back to where they started: Steelers +3.5.
Truth be told, the spread difference between Pickett and QB2 Mitchell Trubisky isn’t that much considering Pickett has struggled to connect with his receivers through four games. He ranks bottom five in many advanced passer metrics while Trubisky has starting experience and an ability to make plays with his legs when things break down.
Just who’s under center for the Steelers may not matter when you weigh how good the Baltimore defense is playing. The Ravens’ stop unit sits No. 3 in EPA allowed per play and No. 4 in DVOA, with coordinator Mike Macdonald keeping rivals guessing.
He’s been more aggressive in terms of blitzing so far in 2023, bringing extra pass rushers on 31% of dropbacks – the eighth-highest blitz rate – which has helped generate 15 sacks through four games. That said, the Ravens have faced a weaker crop of QBs in this span, including a rookie in his first pro start, two backups, and a one-legged Joe Burrow.
Offensively, the Baltimore attack is doing a solid job giving the stop unit a break. The run-heavy schemes are handing off on 54.51% of snaps and chewing up almost 31 minutes of possession, rolling at the seventh slowest pace in terms of seconds per play.
That ground game butts heads with the Steelers defense, which has kept the club competitive the past four games. Pittsburgh is middle of the road in most advanced defensive measurements but did buckle at Houston in Week 4, getting stuck on the field for 32:35 and allowing 30 points in the one-sided loss.
This Over/Under total opened at 40 points and slipped down to 38.5 with the Steelers’ questions at QB shortening up their offensive attack.
The Under has been the profitable side when these AFC North foes collide, with Baltimore and Pittsburgh playing below the closing number in five straight meetings and seven of their last 10 head-to-head games overall.
